Working Papers

• “Human Capital, Ancestry, and Skill Composition” [Job Market Paper] Under Review
  Abstract

  A central regularity of US economic geography is the spatial correlation between local human capital and the skill intensity of local industries, yet the causal effect of human capital on the skill composition of industries remains unclear. I examine how ancestry-induced shifts in historical human capital shape the contemporary industrial skill distribution of US counties. Exploiting quasi-random variation in ancestry composition for 1970–2010 based on origin-by-destination immigration stocks from 1860–2010, I generate plausibly exogenous variation in the skill structure of local working-age populations. The findings show that exogenous increases in medium- and high-skill worker shares raise the employment and establishment shares of high-skill industries and reduce those of low-skill industries. Adjustment is asymmetric across sectors: nontradables expand, consistent with stronger local demand, whereas tradables contract as relative scarcity of low-skill labor increases local costs. A model with imperfect substitution across skill types rationalizes these patterns and implies partial yet systematic reallocation toward skill-intensive economic activity following shifts in the labor force composition. The results identify a key mechanism through which long-run, demography-driven human capital shocks reshape regional production structure, informing local economic development and education policies.
• “Holy Work: How Religiosity Shapes Local Labor Market Outcomes” with Mary Peshoff
  Abstract

  We utilize a novel identification strategy to quantify the impacts of religiosity on US local labor markets. Exploiting the quasi-random variation in historical immigration from 1850 to 2010 and origin-specific religiosity, we isolate exogenous variation in the religious composition of US commuting zones for 1940-2010. We find that, relative to the religiously Unaffiliated share, an exogenous increase in Protestant, Orthodox Christian, and “Other” religious shares decreases employment and marriage shares, whereas Jewish share increases employment and college education shares along with mean income in commuting zones. The share of married women in the workforce falls with all religious shares except Jewish share. Our findings reveal substantial heterogeneity by gender. We demonstrate both the causal effect of religiosity and the heterogeneous impacts of different faiths.
• “Firm Creation under DACA”
  Abstract

  Undocumented immigration remains a central issue within US immigration policy debates, yet little is known about how legalization programs affect firm dynamics and labor market composition. In this paper, I study the impact of a particular legalization reform, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), enacted in 2012, on establishment and employment outcomes. I exploit variation in pre-treatment exposure to the policy in sectors and commuting zones, using a triple-difference estimator. I find that DACA increases establishment entry by 2.4 percent in more exposed sectors and temporarily reduces exit rates, suggesting market expansion and entrepreneurship amongst formerly undocumented workers. The share of native workers rises by 2.1 percentage points, whereas that of ineligible undocumented workers declines by a similar magnitude, demonstrating labor substitution. Heterogeneity estimates across sectoral skill types reveal that these effects are concentrated in low- and medium-skill sectors. These results have important policy implications such that immigrant regularization can enhance firm dynamism and facilitate labor reallocation, without displacing native workers.

Works in Progress

• “The Effect of Managerial Risk Preferences on Capital Structure Decisions” with Joshua Scott and Eddy Junarsin (Analysis Ongoing)
  Abstract

  This study examines how managerial risk preferences moderate the influence of peer firms on capital structure decisions. Using proprietary Compustat ExecuComp data from WRDS, we analyze whether peer effects are amplified or diminished depending on whether a CEO is risk seeking or risk averse. Our findings will show how firm financing outcomes reflect both external pressures from peer firms and the internal dispositions of decision-makers.

• “Weather Shocks, Violence, and Skill-Based Emigration from Mexico” (Analysis Ongoing)